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The measurement of an astrophysical flux of high-energy neutrinos by IceCube is an important step towards finding the long-sought sources of cosmic rays. Nevertheless, the long exposure neutrino sky map shows no significant indication of point sources so far. The real-time followup of neutrino events turned out to be the most successful approach in neutrino point-source searches. It brought, among others, the most compelling evidence for a neutrino point source: the flaring gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 in coincidence with a single high-energy neutrino from IceCube (IceCube-170922A). The fast multiwavelength(MWL) follow-up of this alert was key for establishing this coincidence and constraining the subsequent theoretical modeling for this event. In the long run, accurate and contemporaneous MWL spectral measurements are essential ingredients in investigating the physical processes leading to particle acceleration and emission of radiation. A deeper understanding of those processes allows us to put constraints on the potential neutrino emission. Here we present the light curves and simultaneous spectral energy distributions from November 2017 till February 2021 of MAGIC and MWL monitoring of TXS 0506+056. The more than two-year-long rise and high state of the radio light curve of TXS 0506+056, which started near the time of the IceCube neutrino detection, seems to have ended, as indicated by a steep decrease in the first half of 2021. We also present the theoretical interpretation of our observations.
Abstract Context: PKS 1510–089 is a flat spectrum radio quasar strongly variable in the optical and GeV range. To date, very high-energy (VHE, > 100 GeV) emission has been observed from this source either during long high states of optical and GeV activity or during short flares. Aims: We search for low-state VHE gamma-ray emission from PKS 1510–089. We characterize and model the source in a broadband context, which would provide a baseline over which high states and flares could be better understood. Methods: PKS 1510–089 has been monitored by the MAGIC telescopes since 2012. We use daily binned Fermi-LAT flux measurements of PKS 1510–089 to characterize the GeV emission and select the observation periods of MAGIC during low state of activity. For the selected times we compute the average radio, IR, optical, UV, X-ray, and gamma-ray emission to construct a low-state spectral energy distribution of the source. The broadband emission is modeled within an external Compton scenario with a stationary emission region through which plasma and magnetic fields are flowing. We also perform the emission-model-independent calculations of the maximum absorption in the broad line region (BLR) using two different models. Results: The MAGIC telescopes collected 75 hr of data during times when the Fermi-LAT flux measured above 1 GeV was below 3 × 10−8 cm−2 s−1, which is the threshold adopted for the definition of a low gamma-ray activity state. The data show a strongly significant (9.5σ) VHE gamma-ray emission at the level of (4.27 ± 0.61stat) × 10−12 cm−2 s−1 above 150 GeV, a factor of 80 lower than the highest flare observed so far from this object. Despite the lower flux, the spectral shape is consistent with earlier detections in the VHE band. The broadband emission is compatible with the external Compton scenario assuming a large emission region located beyond the BLR. For the first time the gamma-ray data allow us to place a limit on the location of the emission region during a low gamma-ray state of a FSRQ. For the used model of the BLR, the 95% confidence level on the location of the emission region allows us to place it at a distance > 74% of the outer radius of the BLR.
Abstract Aims: The aim of this study is to search for evidence of a common emission engine between radio giant pulses (GPs) and very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-rays from the Crab pulsar. Methods: We performed 16 h of simultaneous observations of the Crab pulsar at 1.4 GHz with the Effelsberg radio telescope and the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT), and at energies above 60 GeV we used the Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) telescopes. We searched for a statistical correlation between the radio and VHE γ-ray emission with search windows of different lengths and different time lags to the arrival times of a radio GP. A dedicated search for an enhancement in the number of VHE γ-rays correlated with the occurrence of radio GPs was carried out separately for the P1 and P2 phase ranges, respectively. Results: In the radio data sample, 99444 radio GPs were detected. We find no significant correlation between the GPs and VHE photons in any of the search windows. Depending on phase cuts and the chosen search windows, we find upper limits at a 95% confidence level on an increase in VHE γ-ray events correlated with radio GPs between 7% and 61% of the average Crab pulsar VHE flux for the P1 and P2 phase ranges, respectively. This puts upper limits on the flux increase during a radio GP between 12% and 2900% of the pulsed VHE flux, depending on the search window duration and phase cuts. This is the most stringent upper limit on a correlation between γ-ray emission and radio GPs reported so far.
Abstract A neutrino with energy ~290 TeV, IceCube-170922A, was detected in coincidence with the BL Lac object TXS 0506+056 during enhanced gamma-ray activity, with chance coincidence being rejected at ~3σ level. We monitored the object in the very-high-energy (VHE) band with the Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) telescopes for ~41 hr from 1.3 to 40.4 days after the neutrino detection. Day-timescale variability is clearly resolved. We interpret the quasi-simultaneous neutrino and broadband electromagnetic observations with a novel one-zone lepto-hadronic model, based on interactions of electrons and protons co-accelerated in the jet with external photons originating from a slow-moving plasma sheath surrounding the faster jet spine. We can reproduce the multiwavelength spectra of TXS 0506+056 with neutrino rate and energy compatible with IceCube-170922A, and with plausible values for the jet power of ~1045–4 × 1046erg s−1. The steep spectrum observed by MAGIC is concordant with internal γγ absorption above ~100 GeV entailed by photohadronic production of a ~290 TeV neutrino, corroborating a genuine connection between the multi-messenger signals. In contrast to previous predictions of predominantly hadronic emission from neutrino sources, the gamma-rays can be mostly ascribed to inverse Compton upscattering of external photons by accelerated electrons. The X-ray and VHE bands provide crucial constraints on the emission from both accelerated electrons and protons. We infer that the maximum energy of protons in the jet comoving frame can be in the range ~1014–1018 eV.
Abstract We report on a multiband variability and correlation study of the TeV blazar Mrk 421 during an exceptional flaring activity observed from 2013 April 11 to 19. The study uses, among others, data from GLAST-AGILE Support Program (GASP) of the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT), Swift, Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), Fermi Large Area Telescope, Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS), and Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC). The large blazar activity and the 43 hr of simultaneous NuSTAR and MAGIC/VERITAS observations permitted variability studies on 15 minute time bins over three X-ray bands (3–7 keV, 7–30 keV, and 30–80 keV) and three very-high-energy (VHE; >0.1 TeV) gamma-ray bands (0.2–0.4 TeV, 0.4–0.8 TeV, and >0.8 TeV). We detected substantial flux variations on multi-hour and sub-hour timescales in all of the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray bands. The characteristics of the sub-hour flux variations are essentially energy independent, while the multi-hour flux variations can have a strong dependence on the energy of the X-rays and the VHE gamma-rays. The three VHE bands and the three X-ray bands are positively correlated with no time lag, but the strength and characteristics of the correlation change substantially over time and across energy bands. Our findings favor multi-zone scenarios for explaining the achromatic/chromatic variability of the fast/slow components of the light curves, as well as the changes in the flux–flux correlation on day-long timescales. We interpret these results within a magnetic reconnection scenario, where the multi-hour flux variations are dominated by the combined emission from various plasmoids of different sizes and velocities, while the sub-hour flux variations are dominated by the emission from a single small plasmoid moving across the magnetic reconnection layer.
A multiwavelength campaign was organized to take place between March and July of 2012. Excellent temporal coverage was obtained with more than 25 instruments, including the MAGIC, FACT and VERITAS Cherenkov telescopes, the instruments on board the Swift and Fermi spacecraft, and the telescopes operated by the GASP-WEBT collaboration. Mrk 501 showed a very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray flux above 0.2 TeV of ∼ 0.5 times the Crab Nebula flux (CU) for most of the campaign. The highest activity occurred on 2012 June 9, when the VHE flux was ∼ 3 CU, and the peak of the high-energy spectral component was found to be at ∼ 2 TeV. This study reports very hard X-ray spectra, and the hardest VHE spectra measured to date for Mrk 501. The fractional variability was found to increase with energy, with the highest variability occurring at VHE, and a significant correlation between the X-ray and VHE bands. The unprecedentedly hard X-ray and VHE spectra measured imply that their low- and high-energy components peaked above 5keV and 0.5 TeV, respectively, during a large fraction of the observing campaign, and hence that Mrk 501 behaved like an extreme high-frequency- peaked blazar (EHBL) throughout the 2012 observing season. This suggests that being an EHBL may not be a permanent characteristic of a blazar, but rather a state which may change over time. The one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) scenario can successfully describe the segments of the SED where most energy is emitted, with a significant correlation between the electron energy density and the VHE gamma-ray activity, suggesting that most of the variability may be explained by the injection of high-energy electrons. The one-zone SSC scenario used reproduces the behaviour seen between the measured X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes, and predicts that the correlation becomes stronger with increasing energy of the X-rays.
Abstract We present a measurement of the extragalactic background light (EBL) based on a joint likelihood analysis of 32 gamma-ray spectra for 12 blazars in the redshift range z = 0.03–0.944, obtained by the MAGIC telescopes and Fermi-LAT. The EBL is the part of the diffuse extragalactic radiation spanning the ultraviolet, visible, and infrared bands. Major contributors to the EBL are the light emitted by stars through the history of the Universe, and the fraction of it that was absorbed by dust in galaxies and re-emitted at longer wavelengths. The EBL can be studied indirectly through its effect on very high energy photons that are emitted by cosmic sources and absorbed via γγ interactions during their propagation across cosmological distances. We obtain estimates of the EBL density in good agreement with state-of-the-art models of the EBL production and evolution. The 1σ upper bounds, including systematic uncertainties, are between 13 per cent and 23 per cent above the nominal EBL density in the models. No anomaly in the expected transparency of the Universe to gamma-rays is observed in any range of optical depth. We also perform a wavelength-resolved EBL determination, which results in a hint of an excess of EBL in the 0.18–0.62 μm range relative to the studied models, yet compatible with them within systematics.
Abstract A population of globular clusters (GCs) has been recently established by the Fermi-LAT telescope as a new class of GeV γ-ray sources. Leptons accelerated to TeV energies, in the inner magnetospheres of MSPs or in their wind regions, should produce γ-rays through the inverse Compton scattering in the dense radiation field from the huge population of stars. We have conducted deep observations of the GC M15 with the MAGIC telescopes and used 165 h in order to search for γ-ray emission. A strong upper limit on the TeV γ-ray flux < 3.2×10−13cm−2s−1 above 300 GeV (<0.26 per cent of the Crab nebula flux) has been obtained. We interpret this limit as a constraint on the efficiency of the acceleration of leptons in the magnetospheres of the MSPs. We constrain the injection rate of relativistic leptons, ηe, from the MSPs magnetospheres and their surrounding. We conclude that ηe must be lower than expected from the modelling of high-energy processes in MSP inner magnetospheres. For leptons accelerated with the power-law spectrum in the MSP wind regions, ηe is constrained to be much lower than derived for the wind regions around classical pulsars. These constraints are valid for the expected range of magnetic field strengths within the GC and for the range of likely energies of leptons injected from the inner magnetospheres, provided that the leptons are not removed from the GC very efficiently due to advection process. We discuss consequences of these constraints for the models of radiation processes around millisecond pulsars.
Abstract We report on the detection of flaring activity from the Fanaroff-Riley I radio galaxy NGC 1275 in very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma rays with the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) telescopes. The observations were performed between 2016 September and 2017 February, as part of a monitoring programme. The brightest outburst, with ∼1.5 times the Crab Nebula flux above 100 GeV (C.U.), was observed during the night between 2016 December 31 and 2017 January 1. The flux is fifty times higher than the mean flux previously measured in two observational campaigns between 2009 October and 2010 February and between 2010 August and 2011 February. Significant variability of the day-by-day light curve was measured. The shortest flux-doubling timescale was found to be of (611 ± 101) min. The spectra calculated for this period are harder and show a significant curvature with respect to the ones obtained in the previous campaigns. The combined spectrum of the MAGIC data during the strongest flare state and simultaneous data from the Fermi-LAT around 2017 January 1 follows a power law with an exponential cutoff at the energy (492 ± 35) GeV. We further present simultaneous optical flux density measurements in the R-band obtained with the Kungliga Vetenskaps Akademien (KVA) telescope and investigate the correlation between the optical and gamma-ray emission. Due to possible internal pair-production, the fast flux variability constrains the Doppler factor to values that are inconsistent with a large viewing angle as observed in the radio band. We investigate different scenarios for the explanation of fast gamma-ray variability, namely emission from magnetospheric gaps, relativistic blobs propagating in the jet (mini-jets), or an external cloud (or star) entering the jet. We find that the only plausible model to account for the luminosities here observed would be the production of gamma rays in a magnetospheric gap around the central black hole, only in the eventuality of an enhancement of the magnetic field threading the hole from its equipartition value with the gas pressure in the accretion flow. The observed gamma-ray flare therefore challenges all the discussed models for fast variability of VHE gamma-ray emission in active galactic nuclei.
Abstract SNR G24.7+0.6 is a 9.5 kyrs radio and γ-ray supernova remnant evolving in a dense medium. In the GeV regime, SNR G24.7+0.6 (3FHL J1834.1–0706e/FGES J1834.1–0706) shows a hard spectral index (Γ ∼ 2) up to 200 GeV, which makes it a good candidate to be observed with Cherenkov telescopes such as MAGIC. We observed the field of view of SNR G24.7+0.6 with the MAGIC telescopes for a total of 31 h. We detect very high-energy γ-ray emission from an extended source located 0.34° away from the centre of the radio SNR. The new source, named MAGIC J1835–069 is detected up to 5 TeV, and its spectrum is well-represented by a power-law function with spectral index of 2.74 ± 0.08. The complexity of the region makes the identification of the origin of the very high-energy emission difficult; however, the spectral agreement with the LAT source and overlapping position at less than 1.5σ point to a common origin. We analysed 8 yr of Fermi-LAT data to extend the spectrum of the source down to 60 MeV. Fermi-LAT and MAGIC spectra overlap within errors and the global broad-band spectrum is described by a power law with exponential cut-off at 1.9 ± 0.5 TeV. The detected γ-ray emission can be interpreted as the results of proton–proton interaction between the supernova and the CO-rich surrounding.
Abstract Aims: The very high energy (VHE ≳100 GeV) γ-ray MAGIC observations of the blazar S4 0954+65, were triggered by an exceptionally high flux state of emission in the optical. This blazar has a disputed redshift of z = 0.368 or z ≥ 0.45 and an uncertain classification among blazar subclasses. The exceptional source state described here makes for an excellent opportunity to understand physical processes in the jet of S4 0954+65 and thus contribute to its classification. Methods: We investigated the multiwavelength (MWL) light curve and spectral energy distribution (SED) of the S4 0954+65 blazar during an enhanced state in February 2015 and have put it in context with possible emission scenarios. We collected photometric data in radio, optical, X-ray, and γ-ray. We studied both the optical polarization and the inner parsec-scale jet behavior with 43 GHz data. Results: Observations with the MAGIC telescopes led to the first detection of S4 0954+65 at VHE. Simultaneous data with Fermi-LAT at high energy γ-ray (HE, 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) also show a period of increased activity. Imaging at 43 GHz reveals the emergence of a new feature in the radio jet in coincidence with the VHE flare. Simultaneous monitoring of the optical polarization angle reveals a rotation of approximately 100°. Conclusions: The high emission state during the flare allows us to compile the simultaneous broadband SED and to characterize it in the scope of blazar jet emission models. The broadband spectrum can be modeled with an emission mechanism commonly invoked for flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), that is, inverse Compton scattering on an external soft photon fieldfrom the dust torus, also known as external Compton. The light curve and SED phenomenology is consistent with an interpretation of a blob propagating through a helical structured magnetic field and eventually crossing a standing shock in the jet, a scenario typically applied to FSRQs and low-frequency peaked BL Lac objects (LBL).
Abstract Aims: In the presence of a sufficient amount of target material, γ-rays can be used as a tracer in the search for sources of Galactic cosmic rays (CRs). Here we present deep observations of the Galactic center (GC) region with the MAGIC telescopes and use them to infer the underlying CR distribution and to study the alleged PeV proton accelerator at the center of our Galaxy. Methods: We used data from ≈100 h observations of the GC region conducted with the MAGIC telescopes over five years (from 2012 to 2017). Those were collected at high zenith angles (58−70 deg), leading to a larger energy threshold, but also an increased effective collection area compared to low zenith observations. Using recently developed software tools, we derived the instrument response and background models required for extracting the diffuse emission in the region. We used existing measurements of the gas distribution in the GC region to derive the underlying distribution of CRs. We present a discussion of the associated biases and limitations of such an approach. Results: We obtain a significant detection for all four model components used to fit our data (Sgr A*, “Arc”, G0.9+0.1, and an extended component for the Galactic Ridge). We observe no significant difference between the γ-ray spectra of the immediate GC surroundings, which we model as a point source (Sgr A*) and the Galactic Ridge. The latter can be described as a power-law with index 2 and an exponential cut-off at around 20 TeV with the significance of the cut-off being only 2σ. The derived cosmic-ray profile hints to a peak at the GC position and with a measured profile index of 1.2 ± 0.3 is consistent with the 1/r radial distance scaling law, which supports the hypothesis of a CR accelerator at the GC. We argue that the measurements of this profile are presently limited by our knowledge of the gas distribution in the GC vicinity.
Abstract Aims: We measure the Crab Nebula γ-ray spectral energy distribution in the ~100 TeV energy domain and test the validity of existing leptonic emission models at these high energies. Methods: We used the novel very large zenith angle observations with the MAGIC telescope system to increase the collection area above 10 TeV. We also developed an auxiliary procedure of monitoring atmospheric transmission in order to assure proper calibration of the accumulated data. This employs recording optical images of the stellar field next to the source position, which provides a better than 10% accuracy for the transmission measurements. Results: We demonstrate that MAGIC very large zenith angle observations yield a collection area larger than a square kilometer. In only ~ 56 h of observations, we detect the γ-ray emission from the Crab Nebula up to 100 TeV, thus providing the highest energy measurement of this source to date with Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Comparing accumulated and archival MAGIC and Fermi/LAT data with some of the existing emission models, we find that none of them provides an accurate description of the 1 GeV to 100 TeV γ-ray signal.
Abstract The mechanisms producing fast variability of the γ-ray emission in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are under debate. The MAGIC telescopes detected a fast, very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray flare from BL Lacertae on 2015 June 15. The flare had a maximum flux of (1.5 ± 0.3) × 10−10 photons cm−2 s−1 and halving time of 26 ± 8 min. The MAGIC observations were triggered by a high state in the optical and high-energy (HE, E > 100 MeV) γ-ray bands. In this paper we present the MAGIC VHE γ-ray data together with multi-wavelength data from radio, optical, X-rays, and HE γ rays from 2015 May 1 to July 31. Well-sampled multi-wavelength data allow us to study the variability in detail and compare it to the other epochs when fast, VHE γ-ray flares have been detected from this source. Interestingly, we find that the behaviour in radio, optical, X-rays, and HE γ-rays is very similar to two other observed VHE γ-ray flares. In particular, also during this flare there was an indication of rotation of the optical polarization angle and of activity at the 43 GHz core. These repeating patterns indicate a connection between the three events. We also test modelling of the spectral energy distribution based on constraints from the light curves and VLBA observations, with two different geometrical setups of two-zone inverse Compton models. In addition we model the γ-ray data with the star-jet interaction model. We find that all of the tested emission models are compatible with the fast VHE γ-ray flare, but all have some tension with the multi-wavelength observations.
Abstract Starburst galaxies and star-forming active galactic nuclei are among the candidate sources thought to contribute appreciably to the extragalactic gamma-ray and neutrino backgrounds. NGC 1068 is the brightest of the star-forming galaxies found to emit gamma-rays from 0.1 to 50 GeV. Precise measurements of the high-energy spectrum are crucial to study the particle accelerators and probe the dominant emission mechanisms. We have carried out 125 hr of observations of NGC 1068 with the MAGIC telescopes in order to search for gamma-ray emission in the very-high-energy band. We did not detect significant gamma-ray emission, and set upper limits at the 95% confidence level to the gamma-ray flux above 200 GeV f < 5.1 × 10−13 cm−2 s−1. This limit improves previous constraints by about an order of magnitude and allows us to put tight constraints on the theoretical models for the gamma-ray emission. By combining the MAGIC observations with the Fermi-LAT spectrum we limit the parameter space (spectral slope, maximum energy) of the cosmic ray protons predicted by hadronuclear models for the gamma-ray emission, while we find that a model postulating leptonic emission from a semi-relativistic jet is fully consistent with the limits. We provide predictions for IceCube detection of the neutrino signal foreseen in the hadronic scenario. We predict a maximal IceCube neutrino event rate of 0.07 yr−1.
Abstract Extreme high-frequency-peaked BL Lac objects (EHBLs) are blazars that exhibit extremely energetic synchrotron emission. They also feature nonthermal gamma-ray emission whose peak lies in the very high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) range, and in some sources exceeds 1 TeV: this is the case for hard-TeV EHBLs such as 1ES 0229+200. With the aim of increasing the EHBL population, 10 targets were observed with the MAGIC telescopes from 2010 to 2017, for a total of 265 hr of good-quality data. The data were complemented by coordinated Swift observations. The X-ray data analysis confirms that all but two sources are EHBLs. The sources show only a modest variability and a harder-when-brighter behavior, typical for this class of objects. At VHE gamma-rays, three new sources were detected and a hint of a signal was found for another new source. In each case, the intrinsic spectrum is compatible with the hypothesis of a hard-TeV nature of these EHBLs. The broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of all sources are built and modeled in the framework of a single-zone, purely leptonic model. The VHE gamma-ray-detected sources were also interpreted with a spine–layer model and a proton synchrotron model. The three models provide a good description of the SEDs. However, the resulting parameters differ substantially in the three scenarios, in particular the magnetization parameter. This work presents the first mini catalog of VHE gamma-ray and multiwavelength observations of EHBLs.
Abstract We present the first results from very-high-energy observations of the dwarf spheroidal satellite candidate Triangulum II with the MAGIC telescopes from 62.4 h of good-quality data taken between August 2016 and August 2017. We find no gamma-ray excess in the direction of Triangulum II, and upper limits on both the differential and integral gamma-ray flux are presented. Currently, the kinematics of Triangulum II are affected by large uncertainties leading to a bias in the determination of the properties of its dark matter halo. Using a scaling relation between the annihilation J-factor and heliocentric distance of well-known dwarf spheroidal galaxies, we estimate an annihilation J-factor for Triangulum II for WIMP dark matter of log [Jann (0.5°) / GeV2 cm−5] = 19.35 ± 0.37. We also derive a dark matter density profile for the object relying on results from resolved simulations of Milky Way sized dark matter halos. We obtain 95% confidence-level limits on the thermally averaged annihilation cross section for WIMP annihilation into various Standard Model channels. The most stringent limits are obtained in the τ−τ+ final state, where a cross section for annihilation down to 〈σannv〉 = 3.05 × 10−24 cm3 s−1 is excluded.
Abstract Context: It has become evident that one-zone synchrotron self-Compton models are not always adequate for very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray-emitting blazars. While two-component models perform better, they are difficult to constrain due to the large number of free parameters. Aims: In this work, we make a first attempt at taking into account the observational constraints from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data, long-term light curves (radio, optical, and X-rays), and optical polarisation to limit the parameter space for a two-component model and test whether or not it can still reproduce the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) of the blazars. Methods: We selected five TeV BL Lac objects based on the availability of VHE gamma-ray and optical polarisation data. We collected constraints for the jet parameters from VLBI observations. We evaluated the contributions of the two components to the optical flux by means of decomposition of long-term radio and optical light curves as well as modelling of the optical polarisation variability of the objects. We selected eight epochs for these five objects based on the variability observed at VHE gamma rays, for which we constructed the SEDs that we then modelled with a two-component model. Results: We found parameter sets which can reproduce the broadband SED of the sources in the framework of two-component models considering all available observational constraints from VLBI observations. Moreover, the constraints obtained from the long-term behaviour of the sources in the lower energy bands could be used to determine the region where the emission in each band originates. Finally, we attempt to use optical polarisation data to shed new light on the behaviour of the two components in the optical band. Our observationally constrained two-component model allows explanation of the entire SED from radio to VHE with two co-located emission regions.
Abstract Extreme high-energy-peaked BL Lac objects (EHBLs) are an emerging class of blazars. Their typical two-hump-structured spectral energy distribution (SED) peaks at higher energies with respect to conventional blazars. Multiwavelength (MWL) observations constrain their synchrotron peak in the medium to hard X-ray band. Their gamma-ray SED peaks above the GeV band, and in some objects it extends up to several TeV. Up to now, only a few EHBLs have been detected in the TeV gamma-ray range. In this paper, we report the detection of the EHBL 2WHSP J073326.7+515354, observed and detected during 2018 in TeV gamma rays with the MAGIC telescopes. The broad-band SED is studied within an MWL context, including an analysis of the Fermi-LAT data over 10 yr of observation and with simultaneous Swift-XRT, Swift-UVOT, and KVA data. Our analysis results in a set of spectral parameters that confirms the classification of the source as an EHBL. In order to investigate the physical nature of this extreme emission, different theoretical frameworks were tested to model the broad-band SED. The hard TeV spectrum of 2WHSP J073326.7+515354 sets the SED far from the energy equipartition regime in the standard one-zone leptonic scenario of blazar emission. Conversely, more complex models of the jet, represented by either a two-zone spine-layer model or a hadronic emission model, better represent the broad-band SED.
Abstract 1ES 1959+650 is a bright TeV high-frequency-peaked BL Lac object exhibiting interesting features like “orphan” TeV flares and broad emission in the high-energy regime that are difficult to interpret using conventional one-zone Synchrotron Self-Compton (SSC) scenarios. We report the results from the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) observations in 2016 along with the multi-wavelength data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and Swift instruments. MAGIC observed 1ES 1959+650 with different emission levels in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray band during 2016. In the long-term data, the X-ray spectrum becomes harder with increasing flux and a hint of a similar trend is also visible in the VHE band. An exceptionally high VHE flux reaching ∼3 times the Crab Nebula flux was measured by MAGIC on the 13 and 14 of June, and 1 July 2016 (the highest flux observed since 2002). During these flares, the high-energy peak of the spectral energy distribution (SED) lies in the VHE domain and extends up to several TeV. The spectrum in the γ-ray (both Fermi-LAT and VHE bands) and the X-ray bands are quite hard. On 13 June and 1 July 2016, the source showed rapid variations in the VHE flux within timescales of less than an hour. A simple one-zone SSC model can describe the data during the flares requiring moderate to large values of the Doppler factors (δ ≥ 30−60). Alternatively, the high-energy peak of the SED can be explained by a purely hadronic model attributed to proton-synchrotron radiation with jet power Ljet ∼ 1046 erg s−1 and under high values of the magnetic field strength (∼100 G) and maximum proton energy (∼few EeV). Mixed lepto-hadronic models require super-Eddington values of the jet power. We conclude that it is difficult to get detectable neutrino emission from the source during the extreme VHE flaring period of 2016.
Abstract We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of 2010 February, when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very high energy (VHE) γ-rays with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments, including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov), high-energy γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, Rossi X-ray Timing Experiment, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data), and radio (Metsähovi, Owens Valley Radio Observatory, University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare “decline“ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2 minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ ≳ 33) and the size of the emission region (δ−1 RB ≲ × 1013 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10 minute binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux–flux relationship, from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anticorrelation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain with the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.
Abstract The HAWC Collaboration released the 2HWC catalogue of TeV sources, in which 19 show no association with any known high-energy (HE; E ≳ 10 GeV) or very-high-energy (VHE; E ≳ 300 GeV) sources. This catalogue motivated follow-up studies by both the Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) and Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) observatories with the aim of investigating gamma-ray emission over a broad energy band. In this paper, we report the results from the first joint work between High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC), MAGIC, and Fermi-LAT on three unassociated HAWC sources: 2HWC J2006+341, 2HWC J1907+084*, and 2HWC J1852+013*. Although no significant detection was found in the HE and VHE regimes, this investigation shows that a minimum 1° extension (at 95 per cent confidence level) and harder spectrum in the GeV than the one extrapolated from HAWC results are required in the case of 2HWC J1852+013*, whilst a simply minimum extension of 0.16° (at 95 per cent confidence level) can already explain the scenario proposed by HAWC for the remaining sources. Moreover, the hypothesis that these sources are pulsar wind nebulae is also investigated in detail.
Abstract M 87 is one of the closest (z = 0.004 36) extragalactic sources emitting at very high energies (VHE, E > 100 GeV). The aim of this work is to locate the region of the VHE gamma-ray emission and to describe the observed broad-band spectral energy distribution (SED) during the low VHE gamma-ray state. The data from M 87 collected between 2012 and 2015 as part of a MAGIC monitoring programme are analysed and combined with multiwavelength data from Fermi-LAT, Chandra, HST, EVN, VLBA, and the Liverpool Telescope. The averaged VHE gamma-ray spectrum can be fitted from ∼100 GeV to ∼10 TeV with a simple power law with a photon index of (−2.41 ± 0.07), while the integral flux above 300 GeV is (1.44±0.13)×10−12cm−2s−1. During the campaign between 2012 and 2015, M 87 is generally found in a low-emission state at all observed wavelengths. The VHE gamma-ray flux from the present 2012–2015M 87 campaign is consistent with a constant flux with some hint of variability (∼3σ) on a daily time-scale in 2013. The low-state gamma-ray emission likely originates from the same region as the flare-state emission. Given the broad-band SED, both a leptonic synchrotron self-Compton and a hybrid photohadronic model reproduce the available data well, even if the latter is preferred. We note, however, that the energy stored in the magnetic field in the leptonic scenario is very low, suggesting a matter-dominated emission region.
Abstract We investigate the physical nature and origin of the gamma-ray emission from the extended source HESS J1841−055 observed at TeV and GeV energies. We observed HESS J1841−055 at TeV energies for a total effective time of 43 h with the MAGIC telescopes, in 2012 and 2013. Additionally, we analysed the GeV counterpart making use of about 10 yr of Fermi-LAT data. Using both Fermi-LAT and MAGIC, we study both the spectral and energy-dependent morphology of the source for almost four decades of energy. The origin of the gamma-ray emission from this region is investigated using multiwaveband information on sources present in this region, suggested to be associated with this unidentified gamma-ray source. We find that the extended emission at GeV–TeV energies is best described by more than one source model. We also perform the first energy-dependent analysis of the HESS J1841−055 region at GeV–TeV. We find that the emission at lower energies comes from a diffuse or extended component, while the major contribution of gamma rays above 1 TeV arises from the southern part of the source. Moreover, we find that a significant curvature is present in the combined observed spectrum of MAGIC and Fermi-LAT. The first multiwavelength spectral energy distribution of this unidentified source shows that the emission at GeV–TeV energies can be well explained with both leptonic and hadronic models. For the leptonic scenario, bremsstrahlung is the dominant emission compared to inverse Compton. On the other hand, for the hadronic model, gamma-ray resulting from the decay of neutral pions (π0) can explain the observed spectrum. The presence of dense molecular clouds overlapping with HESS J1841−055 makes both bremsstrahlung and π0-decay processes the dominant emission mechanisms for the source.
Abstract On January 14, 2019, the Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov telescopes detected GRB 190114C above 0.2 TeV, recording the most energetic photons ever observed from a gamma-ray burst. We use this unique observation to probe an energy dependence of the speed of light in vacuo for photons as predicted by several quantum gravity models. Based on a set of assumptions on the possible intrinsic spectral and temporal evolution, we obtain competitive lower limits on the quadratic leading order of speed of light modification.
Abstract We report a characterization of the multiband flux variability and correlations of the nearby (z = 0.031) blazar Markarian 421 (Mrk 421) using data from Metsähovi, Swift, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, FACT, and other collaborations and instruments from 2014 November till 2016 June. Mrk 421 did not show any prominent flaring activity, but exhibited periods of historically low activity above 1 TeV (F> 1 TeV < 1.7 × 10−12 ph cm−2 s−1) and in the 2–10 keV (X-ray) band (F2–10 keV < 3.6 × 10−11 erg cm−2 s−1), during which the Swift-BAT data suggest an additional spectral component beyond the regular synchrotron emission. The highest flux variability occurs in X-rays and very high-energy (E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-rays, which, despite the low activity, show a significant positive correlation with no time lag. The HRkeV and HRTeV show the harder-when-brighter trend observed in many blazars, but the trend flattens at the highest fluxes, which suggests a change in the processes dominating the blazar variability. Enlarging our data set with data from years 2007 to 2014, we measured a positive correlation between the optical and the GeV emission over a range of about 60 d centred at time lag zero, and a positive correlation between the optical/GeV and the radio emission over a range of about 60 d centred at a time lag of \(43_{-6}^{+9}\) d. This observation is consistent with the radio-bright zone being located about 0.2 parsec downstream from the optical/GeV emission regions of the jet. The flux distributions are better described with a lognormal function in most of the energy bands probed, indicating that the variability in Mrk 421 is likely produced by a multiplicative process.
Abstract Context: Markarian 501 (Mrk 501) is a very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray blazar located at z = 0.034, which is regularly monitored by a wide range of multi-wavelength instruments, from radio to VHE gamma rays. During a period of almost two weeks in July 2014, the highest X-ray activity of Mrk 501 was observed in ∼14 years of operation of the Neil Gehrels Swift Gamma-ray Burst Observatory. Aims: We characterize the broadband variability of Mrk 501 from radio to VHE gamma rays during the most extreme X-ray activity measured in the last 14 years, and evaluate whether it can be interpreted within theoretical scenarios widely used to explain the broadband emission from blazars. Methods: The emission of Mrk 501 was measured at radio with Metsähovi, at optical–UV with KVA and Swift/UVOT, at X-ray with Swift/XRT and Swift/BAT, at gamma ray with Fermi-LAT, and at VHE gamma rays with the FACT and MAGIC telescopes. The multi-band variability and correlations were quantified, and the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) were compared with predictions from theoretical models. Results: The VHE emission of Mrk 501 was found to be elevated during the X-ray outburst, with a gamma-ray flux above 0.15 TeV varying from ∼0.5 to ∼2 times the Crab nebula flux. The X-ray and VHE emission both varied on timescales of 1 day and were found to be correlated. We measured a general increase in the fractional variability with energy, with the VHE variability being twice as large as the X-ray variability. The temporal evolution of the most prominent and variable segments of the SED, characterized on a day-by-day basis from 2014 July 16 to 2014 July 31, is described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model with variations in the break energy of the electron energy distribution (EED), and with some adjustments in the magnetic field strength and spectral shape of the EED. These results suggest that the main flux variations during this extreme X-ray outburst are produced by the acceleration and the cooling of the high-energy electrons. A narrow feature at ∼3 TeV was observed in the VHE spectrum measured on 2014 July 19 (MJD 56857.98), which is the day with the highest X-ray flux (>0.3 keV) measured during the entire Swift mission. This feature is inconsistent with the classical analytic functions to describe the measured VHE spectra (power law, log-parabola, and log-parabola with exponential cutoff) at more than 3σ. A fit with a log-parabola plus a narrow component is preferred over the fit with a single log-parabola at more than 4σ, and a dedicated Monte Carlo simulation estimated the significance of this extra component to be larger than 3σ. Under the assumption that this VHE spectral feature is real, we show that it can be reproduced with three distinct theoretical scenarios: (a) a pileup in the EED due to stochastic acceleration; (b) a structured jet with two-SSC emitting regions, with one region dominated by an extremely narrow EED; and (c) an emission from an IC pair cascade induced by electrons accelerated in a magnetospheric vacuum gap, in addition to the SSC emission from a more conventional region along the jet of Mrk 501.
Abstract Context.: QSO B1420+326 is a blazar classified as a flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ). At the beginning of the year 2020, it was found to be in an enhanced flux state and an extensive multiwavelength campaign allowed us to trace the evolution of the flare. Aims.: We search for very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission from QSO B1420+326 during this flaring state. We aim to characterize and model the broadband emission of the source over different phases of the flare. Methods: The source was observed with a number of instruments in radio, near-infrared, optical (including polarimetry and spectroscopy), ultraviolet, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands. We use dedicated optical spectroscopy results to estimate the accretion disk and the dust torus luminosity. We performed spectral energy distribution modeling in the framework of combined synchrotron-self-Compton and external Compton scenario in which the electron energy distribution is partially determined from acceleration and cooling processes. Results: During the enhanced state, the flux of both SED components of QSO B1420+326 drastically increased and the peaks were shifted to higher energies. Follow-up observations with the MAGIC telescopes led to the detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from this source, making it one of only a handful of FSRQs known in this energy range. Modeling allows us to constrain the evolution of the magnetic field and electron energy distribution in the emission region. The gamma-ray flare was accompanied by a rotation of the optical polarization vector during a low -polarization state. Also, a new superluminal radio knot contemporaneously appeared in the radio image of the jet. The optical spectroscopy shows a prominent FeII bump with flux evolving together with the continuum emission and a MgII line with varying equivalent width.
Abstract MAXIJ1820+070 is a low-mass X-ray binary with a black hole (BH) as a compact object. This binary underwent an exceptionally bright X-ray outburst from 2018 March to October, showing evidence of a non-thermal particle population through its radio emission during this whole period. The combined results of 59.5 h of observations of the MAXI J1820+070 outburst with the H.E.S.S., MAGIC and VERITAS experiments at energies above 200 GeV are presented, together with Fermi-LAT data between 0.1 and 500 GeV, and multiwavelength observations from radio to X-rays. Gamma-ray emission is not detected from MAXI J1820+070, but the obtained upper limits and the multiwavelength data allow us to put meaningful constraints on the source properties under reasonable assumptions regarding the non-thermal particle population and the jet synchrotron spectrum. In particular, it is possible to show that, if a high-energy (HE) gamma-ray emitting region is present during the hard state of the source, its predicted flux should be at most a factor of 20 below the obtained Fermi-LAT upper limits, and closer to them for magnetic fields significantly below equipartition. During the state transitions, under the plausible assumption that electrons are accelerated up to similar to 500 GeV, the multiwavelength data and the gamma-ray upper limits lead consistently to the conclusion that a potential HE and very-HE gamma-ray emitting region should be located at a distance from the BH ranging between 1011 and 1013 cm. Similar outbursts from low-mass X-ray binaries might be detectable in the near future with upcoming instruments such as CTA.
Abstract The flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) PKS 1510−089 is known for its complex multiwavelength behaviour and it is one of only a few FSRQs detected in very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ rays. The VHE γ-ray observations with H.E.S.S. and MAGIC in late May and early June 2016 resulted in the detection of an unprecedented flare, which revealed, for the first time, VHE γ-ray intranight variability for this source. While a common variability timescale of 1.5 h has been found, there is a significant deviation near the end of the flare, with a timescale of ∼20 min marking the cessation of the event. The peak flux is nearly two orders of magnitude above the low-level emission. For the first time, a curvature was detected in the VHE γ-ray spectrum of PKS 1510–089, which can be fully explained by the absorption on the part of the extragalactic background light. Optical R-band observations with ATOM revealed a counterpart of the γ-ray flare, even though the detailed flux evolution differs from the VHE γ-ray light curve. Interestingly, a steep flux decrease was observed at the same time as the cessation of the VHE γ-ray flare. In the high-energy (HE, E > 100 MeV) γ-ray band, only a moderate flux increase was observed with Fermi-LAT, while the HE γ-ray spectrum significantly hardens up to a photon index of 1.6. A search for broad-line region (BLR) absorption features in the γ-ray spectrum indicates that the emission region is located outside of the BLR. Radio very-long-baseline interferometry observations reveal a fast-moving knot interacting with a standing jet feature around the time of the flare. As the standing feature is located ∼50 pc from the black hole, the emission region of the flare may have been located at a significant distance from the black hole. If this is indeed a true correlation, the VHE γ rays must have been produced far down in the jet, where turbulent plasma crosses a standing shock.
We report multiwavelength observations of the gravitationally lensed blazar QSO B0218+357 in 2016-2020. Optical, X-ray, and GeV flares were detected. The contemporaneous MAGIC observations do not show significant very high energy (VHE; ≳100 GeV) gamma-ray emission. The lack of enhancement in radio emission measured by The Owens Valley Radio Observatory indicates the multizone nature of the emission from this object. We constrain the VHE duty cycle of the source to be <16 2014-like flares per year (95 per cent confidence). For the first time for this source, a broad-band low-state spectral energy distribution is constructed with a deep exposure up to the VHE range. A flux upper limit on the low-state VHE gamma-ray emission of an order of magnitude below that of the 2014 flare is determined. The X-ray data are used to fit the column density of (8.10 ± 0.93stat) × 1021 cm-2 of the dust in the lensing galaxy. VLBI observations show a clear radio core and jet components in both lensed images, yet no significant movement of the components is seen. The radio measurements are used to model the source-lens-observer geometry and determine the magnifications and time delays for both components. The quiescent emission is modelled with the high-energy bump explained as a combination of synchrotron-self-Compton and external Compton emission from a region located outside of the broad-line region. The bulk of the low-energy emission is explained as originating from a tens-of-parsecs scale jet.
We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of 2010 February, when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ∼27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very high energy (VHE) γ-rays with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS) observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments, including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov), high-energy γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, Rossi X-ray Timing Experiment, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data), and radio (Metsahovi, Owens Valley Radio Observatory, University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare "decline" epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2 minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ∼25-55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ ⪆ 33) and the size of the emission region (δ-1RB≲ 3.8 × 1013cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10 minute binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship, from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anticorrelation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain with the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.
Context. QSO B1420+326 is a blazar classified as a flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ). At the beginning of the year 2020, it was found to be in an enhanced flux state and an extensive multiwavelength campaign allowed us to trace the evolution of the flare. Aims. We search for very high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission from QSO B1420+326 during this flaring state. We aim to characterize and model the broadband emission of the source over different phases of the flare. Methods. The source was observed with a number of instruments in radio, near-infrared, optical (including polarimetry and spectroscopy), ultraviolet, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands. We use dedicated optical spectroscopy results to estimate the accretion disk and the dust torus luminosity. We performed spectral energy distribution modeling in the framework of combined synchrotron-self-Compton and external Compton scenario in which the electron energy distribution is partially determined from acceleration and cooling processes. Results. During the enhanced state, the flux of both SED components of QSO B1420+326 drastically increased and the peaks were shifted to higher energies. Follow-up observations with the MAGIC telescopes led to the detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from this source, making it one of only a handful of FSRQs known in this energy range. Modeling allows us to constrain the evolution of the magnetic field and electron energy distribution in the emission region. The gamma-ray flare was accompanied by a rotation of the optical polarization vector during a low -polarization state. Also, a new superluminal radio knot contemporaneously appeared in the radio image of the jet. The optical spectroscopy shows a prominent FeII bump with flux evolving together with the continuum emission and a MgII line with varying equivalent width.
Abstract Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.
Abstract Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.
Abstract Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers’ understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage.