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Background The Estonian Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy (EPHT) Trial assigned 4170 potential participants prior to recruitment to blind or non-blind hormone therapy (HT), with placebo or non-treatment the respective alternatives. Before having to decide on participation, women were told whether they had been randomised to the blind or non-blind trial. Eligible women who were still willing to join the trial were recruited. After recruitment participants in the non-blind trial (N = 1001) received open-label HT or no treatment, participants in the blind trial (N = 777) remained blinded until the end of the trial. The aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of blinding on internal and external validity of trial outcomes. Methods Effect of blinding was calculated as the hazard ratio of selected chronic diseases, total mortality and all outcomes. For analysing the effect of blinding on external validity, the hazard ratios from women recruited to the placebo arm and to the non-treatment arm were compared with those not recruited; for analysing the effect of blinding on internal validity, the hazard ratios from the blind trial were compared with those from the non-blind trial. Results The women recruited to the placebo arm had less cerebrovascular disease events (HR 0.43; 95% CI: 0.26-0.71) and all outcomes combined (HR 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63-0.91) than those who were not recruited. Among women recruited or not recruited to the non-treatment arm, no differences were observed for any of the outcomes studied. Among women recruited to the trial, the risk for coronary heart disease events (HR 0.77; 95% CI: 0.64-0.93), cerebrovascular disease events (HR 0.66; 95%CI: 0.47-0.92), and all outcomes combined (HR 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.94) was smaller among participants in the blind trial than in the non-blind trial. There was no difference between the blind and the non-blind trial for total cancer (HR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.64-1.42), bone fractures (0.93; 95% CI: 0.74-1.16), and total mortality (HR 1.03; 95% CI: 0.53-1.98). Conclusions The results from blind and non-blind trials may differ, even if the target population is the same. Blinding may influence both internal and external validity. The effect of blinding may vary for different outcome events.
Abstract Background: Genome-wide association studies have enabled identification of thousands of loci for hundreds of traits. Yet, for most human traits a substantial part of the estimated heritability is unexplained. This and recent advances in technology to produce high-dimensional data cost-effectively have led to method development beyond standard common variant analysis, including single-phenotype rare variant and multi-phenotype common variant analysis, with the latter increasing power for locus discovery and providing suggestions of pleiotropic effects. However, there are currently no optimal methods and tools for the combined analysis of rare variants and multiple phenotypes. Results: We propose a user-friendly software tool MARV for Multi-phenotype Analysis of Rare Variants. The tool is based on a method that collapses rare variants within a genomic region and models the proportion of minor alleles in the rare variants on a linear combination of multiple phenotypes. MARV provides analyses of all phenotype combinations within one run and calculates the Bayesian Information Criterion to facilitate model selection. The running time increases with the size of the genetic data while the number of phenotypes to analyse has little effect both on running time and required memory. We illustrate the use of MARV with analysis of triglycerides (TG), fasting insulin (FI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in 4,721 individuals from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966. The analysis suggests novel multi-phenotype effects for these metabolic traits at APOA5 and ZNF259, and at ZNF259 provides stronger support for association (PTG+FI = 1.8 × 10−9) than observed in single phenotype rare variant analyses (PTG = 6.5 × 10−8 and PFI = 0.27). Conclusions: MARV is a computationally efficient, flexible and user-friendly software tool allowing rapid identification of rare variant effects on multiple phenotypes, thus paving the way for novel discoveries and insights into biology of complex traits.
Abstract Genome-wide association studies have facilitated the discovery of thousands of loci for hundreds of phenotypes. However, the issue of missing heritability remains unsolved for most complex traits. Locus discovery could be enhanced with both improved power through multi-phenotype analysis (MPA) and use of a wider allele frequency range, including rare variants (RVs). MPA methods for single-variant association have been proposed, but given their low power for RVs, more efficient approaches are required. We propose multi-phenotype analysis of rare variants (MARV), a burden test-based method for RVs extended to the joint analysis of multiple phenotypes through a powerful reverse regression technique. Specifically, MARV models the proportion of RVs at which minor alleles are carried by individuals within a genomic region as a linear combination of multiple phenotypes, which can be both binary and continuous, and the method accommodates directly the genotyped and imputed data. The full model, including all phenotypes, is tested for association for discovery, and a more thorough dissection of the phenotype combinations for any set of RVs is also enabled. We show, via simulations, that the type I error rate is well controlled under various correlations between two continuous phenotypes, and that the method outperforms a univariate burden test in all considered scenarios. Application of MARV to 4876 individuals from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 for triglycerides, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterols highlights known loci with stronger signals of association than those observed in univariate RV analyses and suggests novel RV effects for these lipid traits.
BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is accelerated in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). METHODS: To test whether this reflects differential genetic influences on CAD risk in subjects with T2D, we performed a systematic assessment of genetic overlap between CAD and T2D in 66 643 subjects (27 708 with CAD and 24 259 with T2D). Variants showing apparent association with CAD in stratified analyses or evidence of interaction were evaluated in a further 117 787 subjects (16 694 with CAD and 11 537 with T2D). RESULTS: None of the previously characterized CAD loci was found to have specific effects on CAD in T2D individuals, and a genome-wide interaction analysis found no new variants for CAD that could be considered T2D specific. When we considered the overall genetic correlations between CAD and its risk factors, we found no substantial differences in these relationships by T2D background. CONCLUSIONS: This study found no evidence that the genetic architecture of CAD differs in those with T2D compared with those without T2D.
Abstract Predicting longer-term mortality risk requires collection of clinical data, which is often cumbersome. Therefore, we use a well-standardized metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality in the circulation of 44,168 individuals (age at baseline 18–109), of whom 5512 died during follow-up. We apply a stepwise (forward-backward) procedure based on meta-analysis results and identify 14 circulating biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality. Overall, these associations are similar in men and women and across different age strata. We subsequently show that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex (C-statistic = 0.837 and 0.830, respectively) is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality (C-statistic = 0.772 and 0.790, respectively). The use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.
Abstract Objective: To conduct a comprehensive analysis of circulating metabolites and incident stroke in large prospective population-based settings. Methods: We investigated the association of metabolites with risk of stroke in 7 prospective cohort studies including 1,791 incident stroke events among 38,797 participants in whom circulating metabolites were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance technology. The relationship between metabolites and stroke was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression models. The analyses were performed considering all incident stroke events and ischemic and hemorrhagic events separately. Results: The analyses revealed 10 significant metabolite associations. Amino acid histidine (hazard ratio [HR] per SD 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85, 0.94; p = 4.45 × 10−5), glycolysis-related metabolite pyruvate (HR per SD 1.09, 95% CI 1.04, 1.14; p = 7.45 × 10−4), acute-phase reaction marker glycoprotein acetyls (HR per SD 1.09, 95% CI 1.03, 1.15; p = 1.27 × 10−3), cholesterol in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) 2, and several other lipoprotein particles were associated with risk of stroke. When focused on incident ischemic stroke, a significant association was observed with phenylalanine (HR per SD 1.12, 95% CI 1.05, 1.19; p = 4.13 × 10−4) and total and free cholesterol in large HDL particles. Conclusions: We found association of amino acids, glycolysis-related metabolites, acute-phase reaction markers, and several lipoprotein subfractions with the risk of stroke. These findings support the potential of metabolomics to provide new insights into the metabolic changes preceding stroke.
Background: DNA methylation at the GFI1-locus has been repeatedly associated with exposure to smoking from the foetal period onwards. We explored whether DNA methylation may be a mechanism that links exposure to maternal prenatal smoking with offspring's adult cardio-metabolic health. Methods: We meta-analysed the association between DNA methylation at GFI1-locus with maternal prenatal smoking, adult own smoking, and cardio-metabolic phenotypes in 22 population-based studies from Europe, Australia, and USA (n = 18,212). DNA methylation at the GFI1-locus was measured in whole-blood. Multivariable regression models were fitted to examine its association with exposure to prenatal and own adult smoking. DNA methylation levels were analysed in relation to body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), fasting glucose (FG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL—C), triglycerides (TG), diastolic, and systolic blood pressure (BP). Findings: Lower DNA methylation at three out of eight GFI1-CpGs was associated with exposure to maternal prenatal smoking, whereas, all eight CpGs were associated with adult own smoking. Lower DNA methylation at cg14179389, the strongest maternal prenatal smoking locus, was associated with increased WC and BP when adjusted for sex, age, and adult smoking with Bonferroni-corrected P b 0·012. In contrast, lower DNA methylation at cg09935388, the strongest adult own smoking locus, was associated with decreased BMI, WC, and BP (adjusted 1 × 10−7 b P b 0.01). Similarly, lower DNA methylation at cg12876356, cg18316974, cg09662411, and cg18146737 was associated with decreased BMI and WC (5 × 10−8 b P b 0.001). Lower DNA methylation at all the CpGs was consistently associated with higher TG levels. Interpretation: Epigenetic changes at the GFI1 were linked to smoking exposure in-utero/in-adulthood and robustly associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors.
Abstract Background: DNA methylation at the GFI1-locus has been repeatedly associated with exposure to smoking from the foetal period onwards. We explored whether DNA methylation may be a mechanism that links exposure to maternal prenatal smoking with offspring’s adult cardio-metabolic health. Methods: We meta-analysed the association between DNA methylation at GFI1-locus with maternal prenatal smoking, adult own smoking, and cardio-metabolic phenotypes in 22 population-based studies from Europe, Australia, and USA (n = 18,212). DNA methylation at the GFI1-locus was measured in whole-blood. Multivariable regression models were fitted to examine its association with exposure to prenatal and own adult smoking. DNA methylation levels were analysed in relation to body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), fasting glucose (FG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL—C), triglycerides (TG), diastolic, and systolic blood pressure (BP). Findings: Lower DNA methylation at three out of eight GFI1-CpGs was associated with exposure to maternal prenatal smoking, whereas, all eight CpGs were associated with adult own smoking. Lower DNA methylation at cg14179389, the strongest maternal prenatal smoking locus, was associated with increased WC and BP when adjusted for sex, age, and adult smoking with Bonferroni-corrected P < 0·012. In contrast, lower DNA methylation at cg09935388, the strongest adult own smoking locus, was associated with decreased BMI, WC, and BP (adjusted 1 × 10−7 < P < 0.01). Similarly, lower DNA methylation at cg12876356, cg18316974, cg09662411, and cg18146737 was associated with decreased BMI and WC (5 × 10−8 < P < 0.001). Lower DNA methylation at all the CpGs was consistently associated with higher TG levels. Interpretation: Epigenetic changes at the GFI1 were linked to smoking exposure in-utero/in-adulthood and robustly associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors. Fund: European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 633595 DynaHEALTH.
Abstract Large consortia have revealed hundreds of genetic loci associated with anthropometric traits, one trait at a time. We examined whether genetic variants affect body shape as a composite phenotype that is represented by a combination of anthropometric traits. We developed an approach that calculates averaged PCs (AvPCs) representing body shape derived from six anthropometric traits (body mass index, height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio). The first four AvPCs explain >99% of the variability, are heritable, and associate with cardiometabolic outcomes. We performed genome-wide association analyses for each body shape composite phenotype across 65 studies and meta-analysed summary statistics. We identify six novel loci: LEMD2 and CD47 for AvPC1, RPS6KA5/C14orf159 and GANAB for AvPC3, and ARL15 and ANP32 for AvPC4. Our findings highlight the value of using multiple traits to define complex phenotypes for discovery, which are not captured by single-trait analyses, and may shed light onto new pathways.
Abstract Few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) account for environmental exposures, like smoking, potentially impacting the overall trait variance when investigating the genetic contribution to obesity-related traits. Here, we use GWAS data from 51,080 current smokers and 190,178 nonsmokers (87% European descent) to identify loci influencing BMI and central adiposity, measured as waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio both adjusted for BMI. We identify 23 novel genetic loci, and 9 loci with convincing evidence of gene-smoking interaction (GxSMK) on obesity-related traits. We show consistent direction of effect for all identified loci and significance for 18 novel and for 5 interaction loci in an independent study sample. These loci highlight novel biological functions, including response to oxidative stress, addictive behaviour, and regulatory functions emphasizing the importance of accounting for environment in genetic analyses. Our results suggest that tobacco smoking may alter the genetic susceptibility to overall adiposity and body fat distribution.
Abstract In many species, the offspring of related parents suffer reduced reproductive success, a phenomenon known as inbreeding depression. In humans, the importance of this effect has remained unclear, partly because reproduction between close relatives is both rare and frequently associated with confounding social factors. Here, using genomic inbreeding coefficients (FROH) for >1.4 million individuals, we show that FROH is significantly associated (p < 0.0005) with apparently deleterious changes in 32 out of 100 traits analysed. These changes are associated with runs of homozygosity (ROH), but not with common variant homozygosity, suggesting that genetic variants associated with inbreeding depression are predominantly rare. The effect on fertility is striking: FROH equivalent to the offspring of first cousins is associated with a 55% decrease [95% CI 44–66%] in the odds of having children. Finally, the effects of FROH are confirmed within full-sibling pairs, where the variation in FROH is independent of all environmental confounding.
Abstract Background: Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods: For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings: We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7–128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0–123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9–79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9–77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4–27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8–22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation: During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.
Abstract Genome-wide association studies have discovered hundreds of loci associated with complex brain disorders, but it remains unclear in which cell types these loci are active. Here we integrate genome-wide association study results with single-cell transcriptomic data from the entire mouse nervous system to systematically identify cell types underlying brain complex traits. We show that psychiatric disorders are predominantly associated with projecting excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Neurological diseases were associated with different cell types, which is consistent with other lines of evidence. Notably, Parkinson’s disease was genetically associated not only with cholinergic and monoaminergic neurons (which include dopaminergic neurons) but also with enteric neurons and oligodendrocytes. Using post-mortem brain transcriptomic data, we confirmed alterations in these cells, even at the earliest stages of disease progression. Our study provides an important framework for understanding the cellular basis of complex brain maladies, and reveals an unexpected role of oligodendrocytes in Parkinson’s disease.
Abstract Background: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation: The rising trends in children’s and adolescents’ BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.
Abstract From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
Kieli: | eng fin |
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Julkaisija: | Helsinki : Family Federation of Finland 2006- |
ISSN: |
1796-6191 |
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