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Abstract Aims: Fragmented QRS complex with visible notching on standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is understood to represent depolarization abnormalities and to signify risk of cardiac events. Depolarization abnormalities with similar prognostic implications likely exist beyond visual recognition but no technology is presently suitable for quantification of such invisible ECG abnormalities. We present such a technology. Methods and results: A signal processing method projects all ECG leads of the QRS complex into optimized three perpendicular dimensions, reconstructs the ECG back from this three-dimensional projection, and quantifies the difference (QRS ‘micro’-fragmentation, QRS-μf) between the original and reconstructed signals. QRS ‘micro’-fragmentation was assessed in three different populations: cardiac patients with automatic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, cardiac patients with severe abnormalities, and general public. The predictive value of QRS-μf for mortality was investigated both univariably and in multivariable comparisons with other risk factors including visible QRS ‘macro’-fragmentation, QRS-Mf. The analysis was made in a total of 7779 subjects of whom 504 have not survived the first 5 years of follow-up. In all three populations, QRS-μf was strongly predictive of survival (P < 0.001 univariably, and P < 0.001 to P = 0.024 in multivariable regression analyses). A similar strong association with outcome was found when dichotomizing QRS-μf prospectively at 3.5%. When QRS-μf was used in multivariable analyses, QRS-Mf and QRS duration lost their predictive value. Conclusion: In three populations with different clinical characteristics, QRS-μf was a powerful mortality risk factor independent of several previously established risk indices. Electrophysiologic abnormalities that contribute to increased QRS-μf values are likely responsible for the predictive power of visible QRS-Mf.
Abstract Aims: Therapy with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is established for the prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in high risk patients. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of primary prevention ICD therapy by analysing registry data from 14 centres in 11 European countries compiled between 2002 and 2014, with emphasis on outcomes in women who have been underrepresented in all trials. Methods and results: Retrospective data of 14 local registries of primary prevention ICD implantations between 2002 and 2014 were compiled in a central database. Predefined primary outcome measures were overall mortality and first appropriate and first inappropriate shocks. A multivariable model enforcing a common hazard ratio for sex category across the centres, but allowing for centre-specific baseline hazards and centre specific effects of other covariates, was adjusted for age, the presence of ischaemic cardiomyopathy or a CRT-D, and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤25%. Of the 5033 patients, 957 (19%) were women. During a median follow-up of 33 months (IQR 16–55 months) 129 women (13%) and 807 men (20%) died (HR 0.65; 95% CI: [0.53, 0.79], P-value < 0.0001). An appropriate ICD shock occurred in 66 women (8%) and 514 men (14%; HR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.47–0.79; P = 0.0002). Conclusion: Our retrospective analysis of 14 local registries in 11 European countries demonstrates that fewer women than men undergo ICD implantation for primary prevention. After multivariate adjustment, women have a significantly lower mortality and receive fewer appropriate ICD shocks.
Abstract Background: Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) prevent sudden cardiac death. ICD implantation decisions are currently based on reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF≤35%). However, in some patients, the non-arrhythmic death risk predominates thus diminishing ICD-therapy benefits. Based on previous observations, we tested the hypothesis that compared to the others, patients with nocturnal respiratory rate (NRR) ≥18 breaths per minute (brpm) benefit less from prophylactic ICD implantations. Methods: This prospective cohort study was a pre-defined sub-study of EU-CERT-ICD trial conducted at 44 centers in 15 EU countries between May 12, 2014, and September 6, 2018. Patients with ischaemic or non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy were included if meeting primary prophylactic ICD implantation criteria. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. NRR was assessed blindly from pre-implantation 24-hour Holters. Multivariable models and propensity stratification evaluated the interaction between NRR and the ICD mortality effect. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT0206419). Findings: Of the 2,247 EU-CERT-ICD patients, this sub-study included 1,971 with complete records. In 1,363 patients (61.7 (12) years; 244 women) an ICD was implanted; 608 patients (63.2 (12) years; 108 women) were treated conservatively. During a median 2.5-year follow-up, 202 (14.8%) and 95 (15.6%) patients died in the ICD and control groups, respectively. NRR statistically significantly interacted with the ICD mortality effect (p = 0.0070). While the 1,316 patients with NRR<18 brpm showed a marked ICD benefit on mortality (adjusted HR 0.529 (95% CI 0.376–0.746); p = 0.0003), no treatment effect was demonstrated in 655 patients with NRR≥18 brpm (adjusted HR 0.981 (95% CI 0.669–1.438); p = 0.9202). Interpretation: In the EU-CERT-ICD trial, patients with NRR≥18 brpm showed limited benefit from primary prophylactic ICD implantation. Those with NRR<18 brpm benefitted substantially. Funding: European Community’s 7th Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 (602299)
Abstract Background: The clinical effectiveness of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy is under debate. It is urgently needed to better identify patients who benefit from prophylactic ICD therapy. The EUropean Comparative Effectiveness Research to Assess the Use of Primary ProphylacTic Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators (EU-CERT-ICD) completed in 2019 will assess this issue. Summary: The EU-CERT-ICD is a prospective investigator-initiated non-randomized, controlled, multicenter observational cohort study done in 44 centers across 15 European countries. A total of 2327 patients with heart failure due to ischemic heart disease or dilated cardiomyopathy indicated for primary prophylactic ICD implantation were recruited between 2014 and 2018 (>1500 patients at first ICD implantation, >750 patients non-randomized non-ICD control group). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and first appropriate shock was co-primary endpoint. At baseline, all patients underwent 12‐lead ECG and Holter-ECG analysis using multiple advanced methods for risk stratification as well as documentation of clinical characteristics and laboratory values. The EU-CERT-ICD data will provide much needed information on the survival benefit of preventive ICD therapy and expand on previous prospective risk stratification studies which showed very good applicability of clinical parameters and advanced risk stratifiers in order to define patient subgroups with above or below average ICD benefit. Conclusion: The EU-CERT-ICD study will provide new and current data about effectiveness of primary prophylactic ICD implantation. The study also aims for improved risk stratification and patient selection using clinical risk markers in general, and advanced ECG risk markers in particular.